(sent to my sister in the United States, a bit redacted here)
background: Kenya has elections every 5 years for President, Parliament, and some local offices. In 2002, Mwai Kibaki ran on a coalition ticket against the entrenched party, and won, and there was much celebration. The Kibaki administration didn't live up to its promise (who does?) but the last 5 years have been very good.
This year, Raila Odinga, and the Orange Democratic Movement (Kossacks should appreciate that), ran against the Kibaki administration.
Everything was going well; it was generally accepted that either outcome would be fine if it was legitimate; voters were enthusiastic. But then Raila took a lead in the counting ...
Vote was on Thursday, and the tally should have taken 8-12 hours. By midday on Friday, it was still incomplete, with Raila ahead in the presidential race by 800K votes (5M cast and recorded, total 14M registered, expected turnout about 9-10M). At that point it was statistically certain that Raila would win, by at least 300-400K.
Votes are counted by hand (yes!) with many observers at the polling places, and then reported by the Returning Officer to the ECK, and reported by them. Should work well.
But then the ECK (Electoral Commission of Kenya) stopped reporting returns for two days except for a few (including one report of 114,000 votes for Kibaki, retracted a few minutes later when it was observed that there were only 104,000 voters in that district).
Then yesterday afternoon, there was a power blackout at KICC (where they were reporting), then all the foreign press and observers were forced out of the building, then they reported Kibaki had won. He immediately had himself sworn in in a furtive statehouse lawn ceremony. (The swearing in is usually, and was planned to be this time, a big all-day event at Uhuru Park ...)
The U.S. Ambassador said that everyone should just accept the result and move on. He said that before the result was announced! (Do the Bushies have any sense of shame at all any more? I know, really really silly question. Did you know U.S. forces are fighting the war in Somalia? That is another story.)
The EU has said the result was "not credible".
The government banned live TV broadcasting last night; there is a lot of rioting, mostly against the Kikuyu (Kibaki's tribe, which voted 99.9% for him.) No one is going out anywhere; family here is safe, but it is an issue just trying to get milk for children. M. and I are at XX. Everything else is stopped. The Kikuyu (yes, the winners ...) have been burning and looting, including shops in Kahawa; M. is worried that her salon may have been, or be, totally destroyed. (We've long since told the employees to just stay home, like everyone else.)
There have been reports of 94+ deaths, and that Raila and Ruto were arrested. As you might expect, a lot is unclear, please read AP etc. We are getting reasonable new reports, but the international news is overwhelmed (understandably), by the tragedy in Pakistan.
It is a shame; Kibaki was respected by everyone, I liked him a lot; he promised to provide free primary education and HIV-AIDS treatment for everyone, and delivered what the government could (Kenya isn't exactly rich). But now he is just another "big man", the scourge of Africa? I thought he had more self-respect than that. But I am just an observer, it will be the Kenyans who sort this out. Or not. Such a tragic turn for a country doing so well, that I appreciate so much.
Update: while there were reports, including television news, that Raila and Ruto were arrested, it appears that they were not.
It is good to see this in "rescue", so that the main page readers can see it, thank you.
I want to highlight a point buried above: the U.S. Ambassador made a statement that the people of Kenya should accept the result and move on, and the US government would support the result. He said this before the result was announced, while everyone knew it was being "adjusted". In effect: he gave them permission to steal it.
Think about what a difference it would have made if he had instead made a clear statement that the U.S. government would not accept a result that was not credible. Your April Glaspie school of diplomacy at work. (Just like in Pakistan, where similar "diplomacy" seems to have "succeeded".)